Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.590551 2.087394 2.753540 3.733632 5.176934e+00 7.288134e+00 1.073674e+01
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.150360 1.722720 2.633881 4.274280 7.358433e+00 1.340082e+01 2.768978e+01
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.861860 1.438091 2.499267 4.794246 1.028422e+01 2.508699e+01 8.097572e+01
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.675863 1.241463 2.432005 5.512399 1.503038e+01 5.261028e+01 3.325093e+02
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.535610 1.069512 2.336304 6.224275 2.189620e+01 1.194407e+02 2.269690e+03
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.403037 0.855588 2.030618 6.160211 2.709116e+01 2.325911e+02 2.413641e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.302880 0.674370 1.710586 5.785732 3.112210e+01 4.302529e+02 1.428264e+06
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.246932 0.579574 1.585566 6.101474 4.249540e+01 1.227224e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.214380 0.533114 1.588501 7.124916 6.961652e+01 7.327009e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.191453 0.504418 1.641573 8.703203 1.290162e+02 1.969195e+05 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.164933 0.453573 1.578895 9.574740 2.073051e+02 6.106589e+08 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.137496 0.388822 1.415436 9.417985 2.723045e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.112272 0.324750 1.226481 8.826692 3.327477e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.098908 0.297148 1.194985 9.880741 6.299736e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.087148 0.270747 1.152422 10.863541 1.235671e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.078185 0.251462 1.136354 12.376242 3.022869e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.070154 0.232687 1.110173 13.865348 8.338130e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.060501 0.203625 0.997249 13.332640 1.375168e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.051726 0.175485 0.871863 12.107898 1.748190e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.046415 0.160609 0.827116 12.656861 5.028247e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.043303 0.154323 0.839181 14.961047 6.377307e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.041074 0.151246 0.874680 18.704144 6.844912e+09 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.037857 0.142319 0.856381 20.703822 NaN NaN NaN